Vol. 122, No. 3 * Pages 217–361 * July - September 2018

DOI:10.28974/idojaras.2018.3.4

One of the most complex problems of wind power plant operators is to compose a so-called “timetable” that is based on estimating the amount of power produced on the next day divided into small time units. Creation of this timetable could be based on the mathematical statistical method presented in this paper. Our statistical method is based on the construction of a model based on the statistical structure of the change of measured daily average wind speed, that enables the estimation of the probability of decreasing or increasing daily average wind speed by the next day in certain time periods or at various weather conditions. The statistical structure of daily average wind speed changing day by day provides further important information on the wind climate of Hungary and may help protection against wind erosion, building planning, and estimating bioclimatic factors. The basics of the method and the estimation of the sign of changes for the next day are presented in the following. The database is composed of daily average wind speed data measured at nine Hungarian meteorological stations between 1991 and 2000. Studies were performed for the whole period and for anticyclone and cyclone conditions based on Péczely’s macrosynoptic situations and their transitional situations as well. The relative amount characterizing the change of daily average wind speed day by day was defined, and then the most important basic statics were analyzed. The distribution by sign of this amount and the relationship with the actual daily average wind speed were studied. Based on the results, the sign of wind speed change by the next day is estimated. As a conclusion, it can be stated that the presented model yields best results if the present day belongs to cyclone conditions.