Vol. 122, No. 3 * Pages 217–361 * July - September 2018

DOI:10.28974/idojaras.2018.3.1

The precise knowledge of the beginning and the end of the growing season is necessary for the calculation of climatic indicators with evident effect on grapevine production. The aim of this study is to develop suitable methods on the basis of thermal conditions that can be used for calculation of the beginning, the end, and the length of the growing season for every single year. The two most accurate methods (‘5mid’ and ‘int’) are selected using the root-mean-square error compared to the reference growing season values based on averaging the daily mean temperature for several decades. In case of the ‘5mid’ method, the beginning (or the end) is the middle day of the first (or last) 5-day period with temperature not less than 10 °C. In case of the ‘int’ method, the beginning (or the end) of the growing season is the day after March 15 (or September 15), when the smoothed series of daily temperature using the monthly average temperatures of March and April (or September and October) exceeds 10 °C (or falls below 10 °C). As a next step, several climatic indicators (e.g., Huglin index and hydrothermal coefficient) are calculated for Hungary for three time periods (1961−1990, 2021−2050, and 2071−2100) using the ‘5mid’ and ‘int’ methods. For this purpose, the bias-corrected daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature and daily precipitation outputs of three different regional climate models (RegCM, ALADIN, and PRECIS) are used. Extreme temperature and precipitation indices are also evaluated as they determine the risk of grapevine production. The spatial distributions of the indicators are presented on maps. We compare the indicators for the past and for the future using one-way completely randomized robust ANOVA (analysis of variance).
Results suggest that changes of temperature conditions in the 21st century will favor the production of red grapevine and late-ripening cultivars. Furthermore, drought seasons will be longer and extreme high summer temperatures will become more frequent, which are clearly considered as high risk factors in grapevine production. Besides the negative effects, the risk of winter frost damage is expected to decrease, which is evidently a favorable change in terms of grapevine production.

Empirical studies of the late twentieth and early twenty-first century indicate the existence of a growth trend in air temperature. This trend is particularly pronounced in the region of Southern Europe, including the Republic of Serbia. Many problems occur in the socio-economic areas due to global warming, which directly influences the development of tourism. In this study, we will deal with the influence of climate change on the sustainable development of mountain tourism in the area of the western and central Serbia tourist zones, which includes Starovlaška and Kopaonik mountain chain. The data on changes in the temperature of air will be gathered at six different altitude meteorological stations, for the period from 1990 to 2014. All weather stations in the studied area were classified into three groups: lowland, middle and high mountain. In order to obtain trends, three sets of data were used: the average monthly temperature, the maximum monthly temperature, and the monthly minimum temperature, recorded in each station. The seasonal classification has been conducted based on four seasons: spring, summer, autumn, and winter. Three statistical approaches were used to analyze the temperature trends in 15 time series, for each group of stations individually. First, the trend equation was calculated for each time series, then, completely separate from the first approach, all trends were assessed using the Mann-Kendall test, and in the end, in all cases, the trend magnitude was calculated based on the trend equation. The results show that there is a significant positive trend of temperature rise on an annual basis, while the trend is significantly positive during the fall and spring seasons. In winter, the trend is slightly positive or absent, while in the summer trend is moderately positive in all three groups of stations.

DOI:10.28974/idojaras.2018.3.5

Meteorological gridded datasets from the reanalysis ERA-Interim of the ECMWF and the objective analysis E-OBSv14.0 of the ECA&D are used to initialize the crop model WOFOST. The data is on daily basis with 0.25° horizontal resolution and the model domain entirely covers southeastern part of Europe. Hence, the general of the authors goal is to investigate the response of the crops system to the averaged weather conditions, rather than of a particular year. For this purpose, multi-year daily averages from the 30-year period of 1981–2010 are considered. This time-span is often treated as “modern climate”, and it is frequently used in many evaluation studies. A special, purpose-build software system is designed to perform the simulation, which steers the data flow and the exchange between the different modules. The produced outcome, in form of three-dimensional digital map of the crop production specific variables, shows high spatial and temporal consistency, revealing the relevant features of the geographical and chronological variation of the output parameters at the same time.