Assessment of climate change impacts in Hungary with regional climate model simulations and development
of a representative climate database


For subserving adaptation to climate change in Hungary the National Adaptation Geo-information System (NAGIS) was established in 2013. In the framework of NAGiS, sectoral impact studies were coordinated to support the adaptation actions to climate change impacts and related decision making in Hungary. The basis of these impact assessments is past and future climate information provided by observations and climate modelling. In the present version of NAGiS climate projections are given by two regional climate model simulations in which future anthropogenic activity was prescribed by an average emission scenario. However, results from two simulations provide only moderate information on the uncertainties of climate change. In order to obtain a more objective picture about the future changes our climate model ensemble need to be expanded. Between 2014 and 2016 in the RCMGiS project entitled „New climate scenarios based on the change in radiative forcing over the Carpathian Basin” (supported by the European Economic Area Grants), climate simulations were carried out on 10 km horizontal resolution over the integration domain of Central and Eastern Europe, applying the pessimistic RCP8.5 anthropogenic scenario. It is a good start, however further simulations are required to establish a more scientifically sound climate database.

Objectives of the project

The aim of the KlimAdat project is to create a complex database that is filled with detailed meteorological information aiming to supporting climate change impact studies in different sectors, adaptation strategies and related decision making. The project lasts four and half year, while its main objectives are as follows:

  • Performing fine resolution climate model simulations: in the project new 10 km horizontal resolution climate model simulations will be accomplished with the ALADIN-Climate and REMO regional climate models over Central and Eastern Europe using two scenarios (an optimistic and a pessimistic). Results will be evaluated extensively and compared to previous simulations.
  • Performing urban climate impact studies: we will carry out urban climate simulations with the SURFEX land surface model – using the available climate model results as input – on 1 km resolution above cities, and will analyze their impacts on climate change.
  • Post-processing the results: model outputs are often not directly usable, e.g. users may need different parameters than raw model data. Therefore, post-processing of the results is inevitable. Moreover we will bring the data to a format that fits into a geo-information system.
  • Quantifying the uncertainties of climate projections: climate model results are loaded with uncertainties stem from various sources. In the project, special attention is dedicated to quantify these uncertainties and transform them to comprehensible and usable information (e.g. as probabilistic information).
  • Updating gridded measured dataset and increasing its temporal resolution: in the recent years a high-quality homogenized dataset for 1961–2010 was created by OMSZ in the framework of the CARPATCLIM project and NAGiS. It contains daily data of the most important meteorological variables on 10 km horizontal resolution. In order to keep up with the development of climate models, this database need to be improved as well: on the one hand it will be continuously updated with data available after 2010, moreover to investigate climate processes more in detail (such as urban heat island evolution) its temporal resolution will be increased to 6 hour.
  • Extending database and program development: first of all, the digital database of OMSZ should be capable to handle the produced data. The programs (used for station data) need to be assigned to the gridded dataset, and new programs will be developed specifically useful for monitoring climate change (e.g. time series analysis, trend and significance analysis).
  • Creating a web-based geo-information system: all the post-processed data including their uncertainty information will be integrated into a geo-information system which will be proposed for impact studies.
  • Consultation with users: we dedicate special efforts to provide consultations and to train and support users to properly utilize and interpret climate projections. The project intends to encourage this approach by yearly organized workshops.